Assessing the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak The 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak is so far the largest and deadliest recorded in history. The affected countries, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and recently Senegal have been struggling to contain and to mitigate the outbreak. We have developed in the past week a modeling approach aimed at assessing the progression of the epidemic in West Africa and its international spread under the assumption that the EVD outbreak continues to evolve at the current pace. ! I6 J& U' n7 t2 Y
+ \. k E5 J4 O/ N4 A) k* V+ hOur results have been published in* y9 u3 s7 N; m: l: v
[color=#6c5f2 !important]PLOS Currents Outbreaks. However, our modeling work has been motivated by the need for a rapid assessment of the EVD outbreak trends and the obtained results may change as more information becomes available from the EVD affected region and more refined sensitivity analysis can be implemented computationally. For this reason, the paper on PLOS Current Outbreaks shall be considered as a live paper that is constantly updated with new data, projections and analysis.
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In this web page we try to provide a home for such a "live" paper. More in general we link to constantly updated versions of the paper, new figures/analysis and supplementary data files.
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6 _6 c! y) h5 r m | The collaboration NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY8 ]8 A0 J" r) \, s: ]
M.F.C. Gomes, A.Pastore y Piontti, 8 e" F" j+ D \
A. Vespignani, ]# R+ I! z5 |7 m5 p/ G8 h
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L. Rossi5 j6 V+ l3 @ `! a, T) g
2 r5 N/ Z2 n/ {- z4 w' G6 W& QFRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER4 L: y9 ]* h* K' u! U# n: A @, F
D. Chao, M. E. Halloran) w9 q' @% e/ v: j- z) p. `
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UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA$ I P4 O! k! |5 [6 z
I.M. Longini Jr.
0 p/ F; y3 h9 V" f! ]. L# MPublished paper & K" r& ?6 J; l
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[color=#6c5f2 !important]Media and Press
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; }! G* E$ Y1 M; p2 ?! gCurrent projections
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5 D4 M9 I) q5 D0 p LOCTOBER 14, 2014 6 g0 h. s+ `" e( S7 o/ I8 v4 {
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Recent articles about the current Ebola Outbreak- Gomes MFC, Pastore y Piontti A, Rossi L, Chao D, Longini I, Halloran ME, Vespignani A. Assessing the International Spreading Risk Associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Sep 2. Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.cd818f63d40e24aef769dda7df9e0da5. h8 }/ {9 Q. T4 k% `
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The economic impact of the 2014 Ebola epidemic : short and medium term estimates for West Africa, The World Bank Group, October 7 2014.
1 u6 M) E8 f5 i" _0 |[color=#6c5f2 !important](link)Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections, New England Journal of Medicine, doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1411100,PMID: 25244186" M% ~; g" ^9 e; K. e0 c
[color=#6c5f2 !important](link)Meltzer M, Atkins C, Santibanez S, Knust B, Petersen B, Ervin E, Nichol S, Damon I, Washington M. Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic — Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015
w1 n, T9 |# J, b# f1 zMorbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR)
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Towers S, Patterson-Lomba O, Castillo-Chavez C. Temporal Variations in the Effective Reproduction Number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola Outbreak. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Sep 18. Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.9e4c4294ec8ce1adad283172b16bc908.) Q9 g4 h2 F' r4 R U; K: ]" [% z
[color=#6c5f2 !important](link)Nishiura H, Chowell G.
4 n+ K& E8 E* V2 X; AEarly transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014. Euro Surveill. 2014;19(36):pii=20894. [color=#6c5f2 !important](link)Althaus CL.
3 R" F* W/ F8 n- _0 x& |Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Sep 2. Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.91afb5e0f279e7f29e7056095255b288.[color=#6c5f2 !important](link)Fisman D, Khoo E, Tuite A.
( D, d- _* Z5 B) K% f; _) ~& {Early Epidemic Dynamics of the West African 2014 Ebola Outbreak: Estimates Derived with a Simple Two-Parameter Model. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Sep 8. Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.89c0d3783f36958d96ebbae97348d571.4 a8 t' `8 M2 B; s
[color=#6c5f2 !important](link)Bausch DG, Schwarz L
; o# b6 j5 t! L6 R/ @" r(2014) Outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea: Where Ecology Meets Economy. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 8(7): e3056. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003056.
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http://www.mobs-lab.org/ebola.html
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发表于 2014-10-17 13:25
发表于 2014-10-17 14:55
